Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:50:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

4C 0x4c6d…9ca1 other 5 markets active 3d ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$102 (-23%) realized −$1 · open −$101

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$89per market

Trades / day1.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$332now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$1 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$332

Realized−$1

Unrealized−$101

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)2 / 5

History coverage6d

Avg bet$89

Trades / day1.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	7¢	$405	$321	−$84 (-21%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	2¢	$10	$8	−$2 (-22%)
Will Vinícius Jr. win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	2¢	$18	$4	−$14 (-79%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$1	2d
Will Vinícius Jr. win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$18	6d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$411	8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $332.08 · official $332.08 (match) · 14 history records