Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:38:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c6c…b6d7 crypto 791 markets active 0h ago coverage 658d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,886 (-7%) realized −$1,886 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%376W / 415L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$368
7 days−$559
14 days−$559
30 days−$559
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$1,770
sports 25% −$410
other 6% −$31
politics 1% −$25
tech 0% −$52
world 0% −$5
finance 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -11.3% -19.7% 47% 45% -25.2%
≤30d 101 -11.3% -19.7% 47% 45% -25.2%
≤90d 254 -14.8% -22.9% 45% 44% -22.2%
all 791 -6.2% -15.1% 48% 46% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 46% -17.6%
10% -23.2% 41% -25.4%
15% -30.7% 35% -32.6%
20% -37.5% 28% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$27 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

658d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,886
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses376 / 415
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)791 / 791
History coverage658d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 791 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 28 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $37 +$27 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 28 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 28 $135 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$20 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $53 +$35 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $41 +$19 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 28 $22 +$33 +149%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 28 $28 +$32 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $35 +$31 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 28 $77 +$53 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 28 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $60 +$14 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 28 $102 +$15 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $53 −$53 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $59 −$57 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 28 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $22 +$18 +85%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $60 +$16 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $23 +$27 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$14 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$20 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 26 $99 +$40 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $42 +$9 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$8 +227%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $28 +$32 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $93 +$32 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $47 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $25 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $37 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $16 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $9 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $9 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $63 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $37 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $17 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $0 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $4 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $0 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $8 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $0 45m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2626 history records