Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:41:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c6b…c704 politics 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 371d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%5W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$4
other 31% −$4
sports 17% −$2
world 7% +$1
culture 5% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
all 80 -11.1% -19.5% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -27.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -34.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -40.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

371d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses5 / 75
Open positions2
Markets (closed)80 / 82
History coverage371d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $69 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $1 $0 -43%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $143 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Feb 07 $68 $0 +1%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 31 $66 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 27 $69 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 23 $67 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 19 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 16 $67 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $68 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 09 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 07 $2 −$1 -41%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $141 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 04 $1 $0 -6%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 04 $67 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $3 $0 -10%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 30 $1 $0 -33%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 30 $140 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 29 $71 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 27 $1 $0 -33%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Dec 27 $67 $0 -0%
Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025? Dec 26 $68 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 23 $71 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 21 $147 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $72 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 18 $74 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 14 $145 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 06 $148 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Dec 05 $71 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 01 $69 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 29 $77 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 28 $73 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $146 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 22 $235 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 17 $72 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 15 $71 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 12 $75 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 09 $73 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 05 $73 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 30 $1 $0 -23%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 28 $73 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 22 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 21 $77 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 17 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 16 $74 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $63 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $67 3d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $67 17d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $69 116d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 116d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $69 117d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $69 122d
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $68 131d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $65 136d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $66 140d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 140d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 140d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $69 140d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $69 142d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $67 144d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $67 148d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $69 148d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $69 150d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $67 151d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $67 154d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $68 154d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $68 158d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $69 158d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $69 160d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 160d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 160d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $70 163d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 163d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.02 · official $66.02 (match) · 324 history records