Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:09:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c6b…9aae crypto 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (207 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$46 (+5%) realized +$45 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate56%29W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day207.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (207 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -7.7% -16.5% 56% 46% -16.9%
≤30d 52 -7.7% -16.5% 56% 46% -16.9%
≤90d 52 -7.7% -16.5% 56% 46% -16.9%
all 52 -7.7% -16.5% 56% 46% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover207.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 46% -16.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 33% -24.9%
15% -31.8% 19% -32.1%
20% -38.5% 10% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses29 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day207.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Up 78¢ 88¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$15 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $38 −$32 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $44 −$8 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$4 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $101 −$24 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$16 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $35 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $59 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $92 −$17 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$7 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$8 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$5 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $16 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $16 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.27 · official $11.27 (match) · 230 history records