Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:54:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4c6a…f440
sports · 37 markets active 2h ago
2.5score
+$376 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$376 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$67
Realized+$376
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage170d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$2
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers 50¢ 48¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 50¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 7AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Montedio Yamagata vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox Detroit Tigers 49¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Hijikata vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Kokkinakis vs. Barrios: Match O/U 22.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Yastremska vs. Bejlek: Match O/U 21.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 10AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $810 $0 −$810 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Over 53¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Yes 49¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. Júbilo Iwata: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 6AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $298 $0 −$298 (-100%)
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Hijikata vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Set Handicap: Simundza (-1.5) vs Baluska (+1.5) Jun 10 $4 $0 -2%
Yastremska vs. Bejlek: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Kokkinakis vs. Barrios: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 08 $4 −$4 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori Jun 05 $4 +$4 +97%
Donski vs. Duran: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 05 $5 +$5 +101%
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 04 $7 +$8 +111%
Cretu vs. Vasami: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 02 $6 +$6 +90%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Montedio Yamagata vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $4 −$4 -98%
Berrettini vs. Comesana: Match O/U 38.5 May 30 $6 +$6 +104%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $6 +$5 +86%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Luisina Giovannini vs Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De May 27 $6 $0 +0%
Charaeva vs. Korpatsch: Match O/U 21.5 May 27 $3 +$3 +97%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Tam May 27 $3 +$3 +97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 May 27 $3 +$3 +97%
Piros vs. Forejtek: Match O/U 21.5 May 27 $3 +$3 +100%
Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs Arnaldi May 26 $5 +$6 +109%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $6 +$6 +100%
Luca Van Assche vs. Patrick Kypson: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 25 $6 $0 -2%
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. Júbilo Iwata: O/U 2.5 May 23 $6 −$6 -98%
ITF Litija: Ziga Sesko vs Theo Papamalamis May 21 $5 +$5 +97%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 21 $6 +$5 +89%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 May 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Dec 29 $1,177 +$1,177 +100%
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 8AM ET Dec 27 $288 +$288 +100%
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 9AM ET Dec 27 $301 +$301 +100%
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 10AM ET Dec 26 $810 −$810 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 7AM ET Dec 26 $300 −$300 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 6AM ET Dec 26 $298 −$298 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 94% +$356
sports 4% +$19
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 50¢ $3 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 50¢ $1 24h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 50¢ $3 24h
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 47h
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 47h
Hijikata vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 2d
Set Handicap: Simundza (-1.5) vs Baluska (+1.5) BUY Simundza 50¢ $4 3d
Yastremska vs. Bejlek: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 4d
Kokkinakis vs. Barrios: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 52¢ $4 5d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. BUY Yes 49¢ $2 8d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. BUY Yes 49¢ $2 8d
Donski vs. Duran: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 9d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori BUY Granollers/Zeballos 50¢ $4 10d
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 11d
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 11d
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 47¢ $4 11d
Cretu vs. Vasami: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 52¢ $6 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 13d
Montedio Yamagata vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $4 14d
Montedio Yamagata vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 14d
Berrettini vs. Comesana: Match O/U 38.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 14d
Berrettini vs. Comesana: Match O/U 38.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 14d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $0 16d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $6 16d
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals BUY San Diego Padres 53¢ $6 16d
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Luisina Giovannini vs Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De BUY Luisina Giovannini 49¢ $6 18d
Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs Arnaldi BUY Griekspoor 47¢ $5 18d
Luca Van Assche vs. Patrick Kypson: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 50¢ $6 19d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 50¢ $6 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -80.3% -82.2% 0% 0% -78.2%
≤30d 28 +9.7% -0.7% 54% 50% +3.7%
≤90d 28 +9.7% -0.7% 54% 50% +3.7%
all 34 +8.0% -2.3% 53% 50% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 50% +0.8%
10% -11.6% 50% -8.9%
15% -20.2% 50% -17.7%
20% -28.0% 50% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.83 · official $66.83 (match) · 102 history records