Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4C 0x4c69…e7f9 crypto 667 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$718 (+5%) realized +$718 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%330W / 337L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$642
14 days+$940
30 days+$986
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$611
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 152 +14.7% +3.7% 59% 59% +7.3%
≤30d 512 +7.2% -3.0% 56% 56% +2.3%
≤90d 513 +7.0% -3.2% 56% 56% +2.3%
all 667 +1.9% -7.8% 49% 49% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 49% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 49% -15.0%
15% -24.7% 47% -23.2%
20% -32.0% 44% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$14 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$718
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses330 / 337
Open positions0
Markets (closed)667 / 667
History coverage106d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 667 Trades
no open positions (236 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $42 +$58 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $58 +$42 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$21 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$22 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$23 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$19 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $83 +$59 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$20 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$22 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$19 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$21 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $38 +$26 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$21 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$21 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $56 −$54 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$24 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$65 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $55 +$45 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$22 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$22 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$19 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $57 +$43 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$23 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $47 +$53 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$40 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $58 −$56 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$21 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$23 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $42 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $24 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $24 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $23 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $23 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $24 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $24 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $24 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $22 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $23 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $23 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $23 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.00 · official $25.00 (match) · 3500 history records