Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:35:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4C 0x4c69…50df other 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$138 (+1%) realized +$138 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate26%19W / 53L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$314per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 60% −$14
other 19% +$6
politics 15% −$10
sports 2% +$153
crypto 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 +5.7% -4.4% 19% 6% -9.1%
≤90d 59 +11.7% +1.1% 27% 20% -7.3%
all 72 +9.5% -1.0% 26% 17% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 17% -9.0%
10% -10.4% 17% -17.7%
15% -19.1% 17% -25.7%
20% -27.0% 15% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$2 · ×6.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized+$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses19 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage612d
Avg bet$314
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $133 $133 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $33 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $32 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 05 $96 $0 +0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $50 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $250 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $224 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $31 $0 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $7 +$6 +93%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $252 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 20 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 18 $208 $0 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 12 $9 +$10 +114%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 26 $196 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $418 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 25 $193 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 25 $212 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 25 $214 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $391 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $197 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $216 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $196 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $198 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $206 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $218 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $209 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $201 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $8 +$4 +48%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $9 +$7 +72%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $7 +$12 +165%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 08 $25 −$2 -7%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $8 +$6 +70%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Kraken vs. Panthers Apr 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 32m
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 24h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 25h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 45h
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $48 46h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 46h
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $133 3d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $48 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 8d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 8d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $33 14d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $33 14d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 14d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 15d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 16d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 16d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 23d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 23d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $50 24d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 24d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 25d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $41 25d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 25d
Will Solana reach $130 in May? BUY No 100¢ $96 29d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 29d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.55 · official $181.55 (match) · 317 history records