Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:46:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4C 0x4c67…1790 weather 30 markets active 2d ago coverage 47d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$25 (+16%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 84% +$14
finance 7% −$10
other 6% +$16
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -6.8% -15.7% 25% 25% -21.2%
≤30d 5 -25.5% -32.6% 20% 20% -27.1%
≤90d 30 +34.4% +21.6% 43% 40% +2.0%
all 30 +34.4% +21.6% 43% 40% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.6% 40% +2.0%
10% +10.0% 40% -7.8%
15% -0.6% 33% -16.7%
20% -10.4% 33% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +87% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage47d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 −$8 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -45%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on May 25? May 25 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 13? May 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 13? May 13 $5 −$2 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 13? May 12 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 12? May 12 $3 +$5 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 12? May 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 10 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 8? May 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 6? May 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 5? May 05 $3 +$7 +234%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 5? May 05 $3 −$3 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 4? May 04 $1 $0 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on May 3? May 03 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 3? May 03 $6 +$12 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 4? May 03 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 3? May 03 $10 +$9 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 3? May 03 $8 −$4 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 2? May 02 $4 −$4 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 2? May 02 $2 +$4 +176%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 2? May 02 $2 +$2 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 1? May 01 $1 +$7 +728%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 1? May 01 $2 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 1? May 01 $6 +$10 +167%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on April 30? May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on May 1? May 01 $3 −$3 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 30? Apr 30 $5 +$13 +257%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 4d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on May 25? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 23d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on May 25? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 23d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 35d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 35d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 13? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 35d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 13? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 35d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 13? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 35d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 13? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 36d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 12? SELL Yes 84¢ $8 36d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 13? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 36d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 36d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 12? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 36d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 12? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 38d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 8? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 40d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 6? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 42d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 5? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 42d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 5? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 43d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 5? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 44d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 4? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 44d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 4? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records