Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:26:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c5e…8819 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,802 (-26%) realized −$7,879 · open −$923
Gross ROI / mkt -85% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -87% what you keep after slip
Net edge-87%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,253per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$15,589now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$962
7 days−$1,947
14 days−$3,947
30 days−$6,282
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$7,284
world 6% −$2,000
politics 0% −$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-86.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -71.7% -74.4% 25% 25% -26.5%
≤30d 8 -85.8% -87.2% 12% 12% -48.2%
≤90d 11 -84.7% -86.2% 9% 9% -54.8%
all 11 -84.7% -86.2% 9% 9% -54.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -86.2% 9% -54.8%
10% -87.5% 0% -59.2%
15% -88.7% 0% -63.1%
20% -89.8% 0% -66.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -85% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$981 vs −$948 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$15,589
Realized−$7,879
Unrealized−$923
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Open positions16
Markets (closed)11 / 27
History coverage45d
Avg bet$1,253
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 64¢ $3,620 $2,800 −$820 (-23%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 53¢ $2,268 $2,268 +$0 (+0%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 52¢ $2,683 $2,219 −$463 (-17%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 38¢ $2,139 $2,063 −$76 (-4%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 72¢ $1,038 $1,421 +$383 (+37%)
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 45¢ 46¢ $1,000 $1,023 +$23 (+2%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 72¢ $640 $1,004 +$364 (+57%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 75¢ 74¢ $1,000 $982 −$18 (-2%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 71¢ 64¢ $900 $804 −$96 (-11%)
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 80¢ $500 $473 −$26 (-5%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 12¢ $300 $164 −$136 (-45%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $118 $119 +$1 (+1%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 24¢ 16¢ $149 $103 −$47 (-31%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Yes $85 $86 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 16¢ $54 $42 −$12 (-22%)
World Cup: Single Match Yellow Cards Record Broken? Yes $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag Jun 27 $512 −$512 -100%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $449 −$449 -100%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $2,012 −$1,966 -98%
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $7,427 +$981 +13%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2,034 −$2,000 -98%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 12 $139 −$135 -97%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $914 −$900 -98%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $1,311 −$1,300 -99%
Will Carlos Alcaraz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? May 19 $1,228 −$1,200 -98%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $989 −$967 -98%
GTA VI released before June 2026? May 14 $105 −$48 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 45¢ $1,016 1h
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $1,008 1h
World Cup: Single Match Yellow Cards Record Broken? BUY Yes $18 2h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $74 2h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 39¢ $2,104 2h
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $2,300 2h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 24¢ $153 3d
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 23¢ $2,012 5d
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $7,427 5d
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 59¢ $995 8d
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $2,034 8d
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $121 10d
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $3,518 10d
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $502 12d
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $1,717 12d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $41 12d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $610 12d
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $119 12d
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY No 17¢ $512 15d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes $38 15d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes $28 16d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY Yes $139 16d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes $9 16d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes $13 16d
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 20¢ $55 23d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $307 23d
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $39 23d
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $1,014 23d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 30¢ $449 23d
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 71¢ $908 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,589.12 · official $15,588.00 (match) · 44 history records