Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:05:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4C 0x4c5e…39a9 crypto 118 markets active 4h ago coverage 33d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,682 (-1%) realized −$3,260 · open −$422
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate47%52W / 59L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,556per market
Trades / day57.6pace
Fees−$245est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$9,611now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,161
7 days−$2,095
14 days+$295
30 days−$3,161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$2,424
world 21% −$2,255
sports 21% −$176
weather 7% +$230
crypto 6% −$2,945
tech 5% +$135
politics 1% −$375
finance 1% +$7
economics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-53.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -42.6% -48.1% 56% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 70 -55.1% -59.4% 39% 1% -10.6%
≤90d 111 -48.0% -53.0% 47% 1% -10.1%
all 111 -48.0% -53.0% 47% 1% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.0% 1% -10.1%
10% -57.5% 1% -18.7%
15% ← realistic here -61.6% 1% -26.6%
20% -65.4% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$2,479) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -43% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$177 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$9,611
Realized−$3,260
Unrealized−$422
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses52 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$245
Open positions7
Markets (closed)111 / 118
History coverage33d
Avg bet$3,556
Trades / day57.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 50¢ 57¢ $2,500 $2,875 +$375 (+15%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 99¢ 98¢ $2,883 $2,850 −$33 (-1%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 50¢ 42¢ $2,500 $2,125 −$375 (-15%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 38¢ 50¢ $759 $989 +$230 (+30%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $750 −$250 (-25%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 12¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+39%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes 88¢ 91¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $400 −$400 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $7,010 +$321 +5%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $4,014 +$417 +10%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $514 −$500 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,027 −$1,000 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 17 $39,663 +$25 +0%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $3,459 +$41 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6,407 +$3,582 +56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,191 −$1,191 -100%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $20,002 −$2 -0%
Tyler: Liam Draxl vs Sebastian Gorzny Jun 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $260 −$260 -100%
Makarska: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Noma Noha Akugue Jun 04 $600 −$600 -100%
ITF Cuiaba: Gustavo Ribeiro De Almeida vs Samuel Heredia Jun 04 $80 −$80 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 04 $110 −$110 -100%
Makarska (Doubles): Kasintseva/Radivojevic vs Huergo/Jakupovic Jun 04 $30 −$30 -100%
ITF Cuiaba: Salvador Price vs Nick Hardt Jun 04 $270 −$270 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $35 −$35 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $30 −$30 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $2,325 −$1,889 -81%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $378 +$2 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $1,779 +$47 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $5,623 +$6 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 31? May 31 $1,038 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 31 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 31 $57 −$57 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 29 $18,411 +$87 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? May 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $653 −$23 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 2 May 27 $26,743 +$230 +1%
CD Palestino vs. CD Riestra: O/U 4.5 May 26 $1,901 +$97 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur May 26 $3,456 −$120 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $44,236 +$4 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Millonarios FC vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 1.5 May 26 $156 −$152 -97%
São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 1.5 May 26 $126 −$122 -97%
Will CA Boston River win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 26 $18,829 +$302 +2%
Roland Garros WTA: Laura Siegemund vs Naomi Osaka May 26 $9,527 +$843 +9%
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 26 $4 −$3 -96%
Spread: Fredrikstad FK (-1.5) May 26 $2,829 +$240 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $356 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $2 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $14 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $8 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $2 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $2 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $2 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $2 3h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $4,077 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,610.74 · official $9,610.19 (match) · 2012 history records