Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:05:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c5b…847e other 613 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$505 (-7%) realized −$506 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate58%355W / 256L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$17
14 days+$24
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$84
weather 27% −$68
sports 14% −$42
crypto 10% −$50
politics 6% −$92
culture 3% −$215
tech 1% −$7
world 0% +$47
economics 0% +$3
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +11.9% +1.3% 100% 50% -2.9%
≤30d 12 +15.6% +4.6% 100% 67% +0.9%
≤90d 28 +8.0% -2.3% 79% 57% -10.0%
all 611 -5.3% -14.3% 58% 43% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 43% -16.0%
10% -22.5% 29% -24.0%
15% -30.0% 21% -31.3%
20% -36.9% 17% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$506
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses355 / 256
Open positions2
Markets (closed)611 / 613
History coverage240d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 611 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 77¢ 80¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 48¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $49 +$6 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $46 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $43 +$3 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $39 +$4 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $32 +$7 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $28 +$4 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $23 +$5 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $21 +$2 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $17 +$4 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $13 +$3 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 23 $12 +$2 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $14 −$2 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $7 +$6 +85%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $6 +$2 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $4 +$2 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $3 +$1 +37%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 08 $2 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 02 $10 +$22 +222%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $19 +$3 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 27 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 26 $1 +$1 +89%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 27 $20 +$18 +89%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 23 $3 $0 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 23 $3 $0 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 23 $2 +$9 +475%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 20 $1 $0 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 20 $15 +$22 +150%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $2 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $7 −$5 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $7 −$5 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $1 +$2 +225%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $2 $0 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $1 +$19 +1938%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $51 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 30h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $5 30h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $55 30h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $49 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $49 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $46 5d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $46 5d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $43 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $39 10d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $39 10d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $32 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $28 17d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 17d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $23 20d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $21 23d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $17 28d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 28d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $13 30d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $12 33d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $12 33d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $14 34d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 34d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $7 35d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $6 38d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $4 41d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $3 45d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1 51d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.21 · official $56.21 (match) · 1864 history records