Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:12:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c59…02e2 crypto 466 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$325 (-19%) realized −$324 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate36%162W / 289L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$73
14 days−$88
30 days−$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$221
crypto 36% −$132
other 14% −$86
world 1% −$4
politics 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -1.8% -11.1% 28% 25% -45.6%
≤30d 296 -18.7% -26.4% 39% 33% -31.9%
≤90d 451 -23.9% -31.1% 36% 31% -36.0%
all 451 -23.9% -31.1% 36% 31% -36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.1% 31% -36.0%
10% -37.7% 28% -42.2%
15% -43.7% 25% -47.8%
20% -49.2% 23% -52.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$324
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses162 / 289
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions6
Markets (closed)451 / 466
History coverage76d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 451 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 264 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $2 +$7 +351%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $82 −$80 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 +$9 +291%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +275%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 +$16 +784%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +160%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +57%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$7 +165%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 +$9 +442%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 +$6 +140%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 −$8 -80%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $12 −$1 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 55¢ $5 7m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 50m
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina BUY 17¢ $7 7h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 20h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY 35¢ $2 21h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 39¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 32h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador BUY 13¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 36h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 AND BUY 5¢ $2 36h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 36h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Japan 77¢ $10 43h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $75 43h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 44h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY 16¢ $1 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.04 · official $56.05 · 995 history records