Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:36:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c57…93aa other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$159 (-31%) realized −$159 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%5W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$52
14 days+$52
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$67
sports 18% −$6
politics 3% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-42.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +30.7% +18.3% 43% 43% +8.5%
≤30d 9 +24.0% +12.2% 44% 44% +3.7%
≤90d 20 -27.2% -34.1% 25% 25% -20.2%
all 23 -36.7% -42.7% 22% 22% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.7% 22% -26.8%
10% -48.2% 22% -33.8%
15% -53.2% 22% -40.2%
20% -57.8% 22% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -87% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$16 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$159
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses5 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage153d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $69 −$36 -53%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$72 +146%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $36 −$35 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$51 +250%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $32 +$55 +171%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? May 30 $10 +$10 +101%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-25? Apr 27 $14 −$13 -98%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $8 +$8 +101%
FC Metaloglobus București vs. AFC Unirea Slobozia: O/U 1.5 Apr 27 $6 −$6 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $32 −$18 -57%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $10 $0 -4%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24? Jan 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will SK Slavia Praha vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Jan 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Trump shake hands with Emmanuel Macron at the World Economic Foru Jan 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes $33 53m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes $69 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 40¢ $50 42h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? AND SELL $0 42h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 27¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes $36 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes $36 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 37¢ $46 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 36¢ $32 4d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 24d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 41¢ $9 47d
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $14 56d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 57d
FC Metaloglobus București vs. AFC Unirea Slobozia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $6 57d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 17¢ $10 57d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 49¢ $8 57d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers SELL Trail Blazers $0 57d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 52¢ $13 57d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers SELL Spurs 48¢ $14 57d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Spurs 65¢ $19 58d
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 58d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 58d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-26? SELL Yes 38¢ $10 58d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 58d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 59d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 59d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 152d
Will SK Slavia Praha vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 152d
Will Trump shake hands with Emmanuel Macron at the World Economic Foru BUY Yes 12¢ $15 152d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records