Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:00:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4c56…14cc
weather · 110 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$303 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$303 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$161
Realized+$303
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses40 / 58
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)98 / 110
History coverage21d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 12 History 98 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$275
14 days+$310
30 days+$303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Yes 26¢ 62¢ $20 $47 +$27 (+138%)
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting? No 86¢ 90¢ $43 $45 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? No 62¢ 57¢ $36 $33 −$3 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 13? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? Yes 17¢ 7¢ $17 $7 −$10 (-59%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? No 62¢ 100¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+61%)
Will Bad Bunny be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $11 $4 −$6 (-59%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? No 89¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 8? No 77¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? No 64¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 8? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 9? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 8? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$11 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$34 +375%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$121 +637%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$5 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$22 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 −$5 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 −$24 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 11 $15 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$16 +164%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 09 $6 +$4 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$5 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8? Jun 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 7? Jun 09 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 09 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 8? Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 7? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 7? Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $210 +$78 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $8 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $63 +$14 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 +$5 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $112 −$111 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 09 $16 +$47 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $73 −$52 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 08 $6 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? Jun 08 $14 −$13 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 9? Jun 08 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 9? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $208 +$50 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 08 $3 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 94% +$290
other 5% +$10
world 2% +$2
sports 0% −$3
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? SELL Yes 32¢ $24 59m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 27¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 14h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 62¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 62¢ $36 14h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 14h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL Yes 91¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL Yes 93¢ $20 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -3.7% -12.9% 39% 39% +3.9%
≤30d 98 -8.7% -17.4% 41% 38% +1.4%
≤90d 98 -8.7% -17.4% 41% 38% +1.4%
all 98 -8.7% -17.4% 41% 38% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 38% +1.4%
10% -25.3% 37% -8.3%
15% -32.5% 30% -17.2%
20% -39.1% 22% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.94 · official $154.54 · 328 history records