Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4c52…f865
crypto · 401 markets active 0h ago
4.0score
+$39 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$39 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$32
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses298 / 101
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)399 / 401
History coverage34d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 2 History 399 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$87
14 days+$81
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $81 +$14 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $80 +$5 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $81 +$9 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $80 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $81 +$24 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $80 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $81 +$13 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $22 −$8 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $80 +$7 +9%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +34%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $5 +$3 +52%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -68%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$6 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$5 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$14 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$7 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$4 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $80 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $7 −$1 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 95% +$71
other 3% −$41
sports 2% +$3
tech 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $81 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $80 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $81 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $80 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $81 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $80 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $81 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $12 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $80 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 10h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 25h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 25h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $30 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $30 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -0.9% -10.4% 77% 48% -2.8%
≤30d 351 +2.7% -7.1% 76% 56% -6.8%
≤90d 399 +1.1% -8.5% 75% 56% -7.4%
all 399 +1.1% -8.5% 75% 56% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 56% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 32% -16.3%
15% -25.2% 8% -24.4%
20% -32.6% 4% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.95 · official $31.95 (match) · 1023 history records