Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:29:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4C 0x4c52…b0b0 politics 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$26 (+8%) realized +$40 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 79% +$39
other 18% −$14
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +17.8% +6.5% 100% 100% +6.4%
≤30d 2 +17.8% +6.5% 100% 100% +6.4%
≤90d 2 +17.8% +6.5% 100% 100% +6.4%
all 2 +17.8% +6.5% 100% 100% +6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.5% 100% +6.4%
10% -3.7% 0% -3.8%
15% -13.0% 0% -13.1%
20% -21.5% 0% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)2 / 8
History coverage21d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections? Yes 87¢ 87¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 92¢ $23 $24 +$2 (+8%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Yes 87¢ 87¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Yes 71¢ 17¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-76%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 54¢ 46¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-16%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? No 68¢ 78¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $123 +$19 +16%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 21 $101 +$20 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.35 · official $108.35 (match) · 10 history records