Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:40:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

4C 0x4c4b…c22a sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$16 (-11%) realized −$28 · open +$12

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip

Net edge-35%after slip

Net WR20%break-even

Win rate20%1W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$25per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days−$10

14 days−$10

30 days−$10

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +20%

net ROI/market (all)-35.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	5	-28.7%	-35.4%	20%	20%	-48.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-35.4%	20%	-48.3%
10%	-41.6%	20%	-53.2%
15%	-47.3%	20%	-57.7%
20%	-52.4%	20%	-61.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -29% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$26 vs −$13 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.49 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage

Net worth$98

Realized−$28

Unrealized+$12

Win rate (resolved)20%

Wins / losses1 / 4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage117d

Avg bet$25

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	10¢	$86	$98	+$12 (+14%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	Jun 11	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Mar 17	$22	−$22	-100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoff	Feb 21	$10	−$10	-100%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets	Feb 20	$10	−$10	-100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs	Feb 20	$10	+$26	+257%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$48	1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$12	6d
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$13	58d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	1¢	$12	92d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	3¢	$5	105d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$7	105d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$7	109d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	3¢	$5	109d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoff	BUY TheMongolz	17¢	$10	116d
Cavaliers vs. Hornets	BUY Hornets	35¢	$10	116d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs	SELL TheMongolz	100¢	$36	116d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs	BUY TheMongolz	28¢	$10	117d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.62 · official $97.62 (match) · 116 history records