Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:30:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c49…908f other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-5%) realized +$4 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$14
other 32% −$7
crypto 19% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 16 +24.6% +12.8% 25% 25% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.8% 25% -1.3%
10% +2.0% 25% -10.7%
15% -7.9% 25% -19.3%
20% -16.9% 25% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +97% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×3.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Open positions8
Markets (closed)16 / 24
History coverage109d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Yes 39¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Yes 28¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-79%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Yes 16¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $3 +$4 +133%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 07 $7 −$5 -74%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 06 $2 +$1 +62%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 3? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Feb 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Feb 28 $4 −$4 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $2 +$16 +808%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $3 +$17 +566%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 38.5 and 39.0 million views on d Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Feb 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 38.0 and 38.5 million views on d Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 39¢ $1 41m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 44m
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 44m
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 44m
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7d
US forces enter Iran by March 7? SELL Yes $2 100d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 100d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 104d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 104d
US forces enter Iran by March 3? BUY Yes $1 104d
US forces enter Iran by March 7? BUY Yes $7 104d
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? BUY US 31¢ $2 106d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? BUY No $1 106d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY No $5 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up $1 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up $1 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up $1 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up $2 106d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY Yes $1 106d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 106d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 107d
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 107d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 38.5 and 39.0 million views on d BUY Yes $1 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 108d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 38.0 and 38.5 million views on d BUY Yes $1 108d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 38.0 and 38.5 million views on d BUY Yes $1 108d
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 108d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? BUY Yes $2 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.52 · official $5.52 (match) · 36 history records