Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:40:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4C 0x4c48…1c17 weather 153 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$574 (-8%) realized −$561 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate68%100W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$120
7 days−$32
14 days−$32
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 72% −$485
sports 19% −$59
other 9% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -5.9% -14.9% 70% 43% -10.3%
≤30d 88 -5.7% -14.7% 70% 43% -10.3%
≤90d 148 -4.1% -13.2% 68% 46% -16.7%
all 148 -4.1% -13.2% 68% 46% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 46% -16.7%
10% -21.5% 21% -24.7%
15% -29.1% 14% -31.9%
20% -36.0% 8% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$29 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$561
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses100 / 48
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions5
Markets (closed)148 / 153
History coverage40d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Under 80¢ 81¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 50¢ $9 $21 +$12 (+136%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 38¢ $35 $19 −$16 (-45%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Yes 12¢ 27¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+125%)
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 42¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $40 +$8 +19%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$16 +76%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $54 +$33 +61%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $36 +$14 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $32 −$5 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $78 −$21 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $43 −$7 -17%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $34 +$15 +43%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4 −$3 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $48 +$8 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $21 +$4 +21%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $26 +$4 +16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $67 +$13 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $54 +$26 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 +$11 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$4 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $95 +$14 +14%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $28 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $83 +$22 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $37 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $41 +$7 +17%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 16 $41 +$9 +21%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 16? Jun 15 $16 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$2 +21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $86 −$86 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $43 +$3 +6%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $12 +$10 +87%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $24 +$6 +24%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $36 +$9 +24%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $47 +$2 +4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $23 +$7 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $94 +$6 +6%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $85 +$15 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 −$5 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $35 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $89 +$6 +7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $146 +$53 +36%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $61 −$41 -67%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $32 +$12 +39%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $28 −$4 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $59 +$1 +2%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $45 +$5 +11%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $32 −$32 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $27 +$7 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $48 14m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $24 22m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 22m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $24 27m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 49m
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $0 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $12 1h
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 87¢ $42 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 46¢ $12 1h
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 87¢ $45 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $19 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $35 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 71¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 45¢ $22 2h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $27 2h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $27 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $36 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 20¢ $9 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $35 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 56¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 62¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 62¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 72¢ $35 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.98 · official $68.98 (match) · 713 history records