trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +4.9% | -5.1% | 50% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +4.9% | -5.1% | 50% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +3.2% | -6.6% | 33% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 21 | +6.4% | -3.8% | 48% | 10% | -9.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -3.8% | 10% | -9.8% |
| 10% | -13.0% | 5% | -18.5% |
| 15% | -21.4% | 5% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -29.1% | 5% | -33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-39 House seat? | No | 92¢ | 7¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-92%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Jun 18 | $149 | $0 | -0% |
| Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate | Jun 16 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? | May 14 | $101 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 09 | $140 | $0 | -0% |
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 09 | $63 | $0 | -0% |
| U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by February 28? | Apr 06 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Feb 17 | $67 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Perplexity acquire Chrome in 2025? | Jan 31 | $6 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump say "Job" 5+ times during Signing tonight? | Dec 23 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Eric Adams endorse Sliwa? | Nov 13 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium before August? | Aug 13 | $4 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Kieran Culkin win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars? | Jun 30 | $8 | +$2 | +19% |
| Minnesota vs. Wisconsin | Jan 22 | $1 | +$1 | +96% |
| Will Coldplay be the Billboard #1 pop star of the century? | Nov 29 | $747 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Kraken IPO in 2024? | Nov 24 | $5 | $0 | -2% |
| Will a Democrat win Illinois Presidential Election? | Nov 08 | $21 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Iran strike gulf oil facilities in October? | Oct 16 | $21 | $0 | -0% |
| France loses visa-free access to any African nation in 2024? | Oct 09 | $4 | $0 | -10% |
| Shōgun wins Best Drama Series? - Emmys | Sep 19 | $4 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Jayden Daniels start Week 1 for Commanders? | Sep 15 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will a Republican win Alaska Presidential Election? | Aug 15 | $332 | −$7 | -2% |