Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:54:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c45…ec63 other 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$13 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate22%16W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 78% −$14
politics 11% −$7
other 8% −$37
sports 2% +$42
crypto 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -5.7% -14.7% 6% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 53 -4.9% -13.9% 19% 15% -9.7%
all 73 -2.7% -12.0% 22% 12% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 12% -9.6%
10% -20.4% 12% -18.2%
15% -28.1% 12% -26.1%
20% -35.1% 10% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×3.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses16 / 57
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage603d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $17 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $100 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $14 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $89 $0 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $96 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $9 +$4 +50%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 08 $91 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $87 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $90 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $85 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $93 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $89 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $90 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $94 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 22 $87 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 22 $87 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $93 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $87 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $85 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $90 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $90 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $6 +$5 +86%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $8 +$6 +72%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $10 +$6 +62%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $13 +$1 +10%
Blackhawks vs. Oilers Apr 06 $12 +$6 +47%
Suns vs. Hornets Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks Apr 02 $35 +$63 +178%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 30 $30 +$16 +54%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mar 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 27h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 28h
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $50 47h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 2d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 2d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 2d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 2d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $14 4d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $14 4d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $19 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 8d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 9d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 10d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 47¢ $7 10d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $20 13d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $20 13d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 15d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 15d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 16d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 16d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 16d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 17d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 18d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 18d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.84 · official $76.84 (match) · 280 history records