Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:33:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4c43…1e4a
other · 177 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$297 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$297 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50
Realized−$297
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses69 / 102
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)171 / 177
History coverage210d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%
Chart Positions 6 History 171 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$51
14 days+$51
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-01? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score Yes 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-02? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Valencia CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Yes 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-08? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-09? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Levante UD vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$5 +103%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$15 -50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $85 +$50 +59%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $5 +$3 +67%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $5 −$3 -65%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $5 +$5 +89%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 +$4 +82%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score May 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score May 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Levante UD vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? May 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $5 +$8 +154%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 07 $5 −$5 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $5 +$5 +93%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 +$3 +32%
CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score May 02 $10 −$9 -86%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $20 +$9 +44%
Villarreal CF vs. Levante UD: Both Teams to Score May 02 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 +$7 +70%
Valencia CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $10 +$5 +54%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 29 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-17? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Valencia CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Apr 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-04? Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 72% −$215
sports 17% −$137
politics 11% +$54
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $5 49m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 49m
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 24h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $10 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 24h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 30h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 30h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 47h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 76¢ $54 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 62¢ $45 8d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 17d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 17d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 21d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 24d
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 18¢ $2 24d
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 24d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 24d
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $8 25d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? SELL Yes 85¢ $10 25d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 25d
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $5 25d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +40.5% +27.1% 71% 71% +22.2%
≤30d 18 +14.8% +3.9% 61% 61% +10.7%
≤90d 117 -21.8% -29.2% 42% 42% -26.8%
all 171 -18.7% -26.4% 40% 40% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 40% -23.6%
10% -33.5% 40% -30.9%
15% -39.9% 36% -37.5%
20% -45.8% 32% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.56 · official $49.56 (match) · 335 history records