Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4C 0x4c41…8d1d other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 704d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,128 (+65%) realized +$4,129 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$634per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$127
14 days−$127
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$4,147
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-64.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -78.9% -80.9% 14% 14% -53.4%
≤30d 7 -78.9% -80.9% 14% 14% -53.4%
≤90d 7 -78.9% -80.9% 14% 14% -53.4%
all 8 -60.2% -64.0% 25% 25% +50.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.0% 25% +50.1%
10% -67.4% 25% +35.8%
15% -70.6% 25% +22.7%
20% -73.4% 12% +10.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt +66% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,149 vs −$28 · ×75.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×25.29 per $1 lost it wins $25.29
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

704d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$4,129
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage704d
Avg bet$634
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $91 +$43 +48%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros? Jul 15 $5,999 +$4,255 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $91 25h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 45h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros? BUY Yes 58¢ $957 703d
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros? BUY Yes 58¢ $22 703d
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,450 703d
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros? BUY Yes 58¢ $521 703d
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros? BUY Yes 59¢ $2,780 704d
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros? BUY Yes 59¢ $269 704d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.63 · official $78.63 (match) · 19 history records