Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:20:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4C 0x4c40…ef70 crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$286 (+13%) realized +$286 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate88%21W / 3L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$243
other 5% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +12.3% +1.6% 88% 33% +2.6%
≤30d 24 +12.3% +1.6% 88% 33% +2.6%
≤90d 24 +12.3% +1.6% 88% 33% +2.6%
all 24 +12.3% +1.6% 88% 33% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 33% +2.6%
10% -8.1% 21% -7.2%
15% -17.0% 17% -16.2%
20% -25.1% 8% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$0 · ×31.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×222.48 per $1 lost it wins $222.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$286
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses21 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage2d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 28 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 28 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 27 $101 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 27 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 27 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 27 $102 +$29 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 27 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 27 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 27 $103 +$85 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 27 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 27 $101 +$8 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $114 +$47 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $114 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records