Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:09:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c3f…0fc5 crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate24%11W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$90
sports 30% −$12
world 11% −$13
politics 11% −$4
weather 8% +$43
crypto 6% −$5
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -5.2% -14.2% 0% 0% -14.3%
≤30d 5 +78.8% +61.7% 40% 40% +5.3%
≤90d 39 -0.8% -10.3% 26% 23% -14.3%
all 45 -7.6% -16.4% 24% 22% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 22% -14.3%
10% -24.4% 20% -22.5%
15% -31.7% 20% -30.0%
20% -38.4% 20% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses11 / 34
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage136d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $55 −$3 -5%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $68 −$5 -7%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 19 $57 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 18? May 26 $10 +$20 +195%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 17? May 26 $10 +$22 +214%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 18? May 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 18? May 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 16? May 16 $26 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 16? May 16 $10 −$3 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 17? May 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 17? May 16 $5 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 17? May 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 17? May 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on May 15? May 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on May 15? May 15 $10 +$40 +387%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $38 $0 -1%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 24 $30 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 24 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 24 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 24 $4 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 23 $4 +$4 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 23 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 23 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Apr 23 $239 −$78 -33%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $6 $0 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $30 $0 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $419 −$12 -3%
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Apr 20 $155 −$3 -2%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Apr 20 $164 −$3 -2%
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? Mar 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Mar 23 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 19 $1 +$1 +89%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 04 $50 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 30m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 30m
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 31m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 31m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 33m
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $25 35m
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 44m
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 45m
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY Yes 50¢ $11 46m
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 47m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $21 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $21 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $22 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $22 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $44 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $27 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 33d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 33d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 18? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 33d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 16? SELL Yes 28¢ $25 33d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 33d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 16? SELL Yes 35¢ $8 33d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 34d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 17? SELL Yes 34¢ $5 34d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 34d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 249 history records