Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:59:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4C 0x4c3f…c9a9 crypto 1527 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 109d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate79%1200W / 327L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$278
7 days−$268
14 days−$267
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$226
weather 35% +$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -69.5% -72.4% 24% 20% -68.2%
≤30d 93 -19.6% -27.3% 46% 34% -17.5%
≤90d 1408 -3.2% -12.5% 78% 23% -10.4%
all 1527 -3.9% -13.1% 79% 22% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 22% -11.0%
10% -21.4% 13% -19.5%
15% -29.0% 10% -27.3%
20% -35.9% 8% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses1200 / 327
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1527 / 1527
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1527 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 +$4 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$5 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $9 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 7? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on May 2? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 4? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 3? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 1? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on May 1? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 4? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 8? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 7? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on April 29? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on May 4? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 3? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 6? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 1? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 12? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on May 23? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on May 20? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 8? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on May 4? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 3? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 5? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on May 4? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 6? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on May 22? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 20? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on May 22? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on May Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 7? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C or higher on May 14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 24? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 22? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 22? Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 23? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on May 22? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 85¢ $8 58m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 94¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 81¢ $11 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $20 19h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? SELL No 20¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? SELL No 72¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? SELL No 76¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? SELL No 83¢ $8 21h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 63¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 97¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 62¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 73¢ $7 24h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $9 24h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $9 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $16 41h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $9 42h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 94¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 81¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $9 4d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 75¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 78¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 79¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 78¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY No 87¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 82¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records