Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:38:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c3e…403a crypto 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$917 (-12%) realized −$828 · open −$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%37W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$536now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$244
14 days+$244
30 days+$244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$1,010
crypto 16% +$77
other 6% −$45
sports 3% −$62
finance 2% +$60
politics 0% −$18
economics 0% −$14
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +17.1% +5.9% 50% 50% +46.8%
≤30d 8 +17.1% +5.9% 50% 50% +46.8%
≤90d 40 -17.2% -25.1% 40% 38% -7.3%
all 103 +4.2% -5.7% 36% 35% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 35% -21.1%
10% -14.7% 31% -28.7%
15% -23.0% 31% -35.6%
20% -30.5% 29% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$45 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$536
Realized−$828
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses37 / 66
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions27
Markets (closed)103 / 130
History coverage152d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 22¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-39%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+32%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+15%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-16%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-32%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June? Yes 27¢ 25¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$27 +262%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jun 18 $31 −$10 -32%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $300 +$226 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 14 $55 −$52 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 14 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 10 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 10 $30 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 10 $30 −$28 -95%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 09 $30 +$28 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 09 $50 +$62 +124%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 08 $80 +$32 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 07 $20 −$19 -95%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 02 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 01 $45 −$42 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 01 $30 +$23 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 01 $80 +$132 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 31 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 31 $20 −$19 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 31 $200 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 31 $30 +$78 +261%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 31 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 31 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 27 $10 +$23 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 27 $20 −$18 -91%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 27 $200 +$112 +56%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, Mar 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 25 $200 −$95 -48%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026? Mar 25 $30 +$6 +22%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? Mar 25 $30 −$26 -86%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 23 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? Mar 23 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 21, 2026? Mar 22 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Mar 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? Mar 20 $100 −$86 -86%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 20 $300 −$179 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 19 $10 +$10 +97%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Mar 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear Mar 16 $100 −$30 -30%
Will Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility? Mar 16 $200 −$122 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 1h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? SELL Yes 6¢ $21 16h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 19h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 19h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 21h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 21h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 21h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 21h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 21h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 21h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 21h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 21h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $50 21h
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $536.34 · official $536.34 (match) · 238 history records