Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:13:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

4C 0x4c3a…e915 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 372d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL −$557 (-23%) realized −$555 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip

Net edge+42%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$799per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 372d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+48.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	2	+63.8%	+48.2%	50%	50%	-32.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+48.2%	50%	-32.5%
10%	+34.0%	50%	-38.9%
15%	+21.1%	50%	-44.8%
20%	+9.2%	50%	-50.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +64% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1,138 vs −$1,695 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.67 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage

Net worth$198

Realized−$555

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage372d

Avg bet$799

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	40¢	40¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?	Mar 18	$500	+$1,138	+228%
US military action against Iran before July?	Jun 21	$1,695	−$1,695	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	40¢	$204	1h
US military action against Iran before July?	BUY No	58¢	$695	370d
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?	BUY Yes	31¢	$500	371d
US military action against Iran before July?	BUY No	60¢	$1,000	371d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.50 · official $197.50 (match) · 5 history records