Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:45:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c37…5031 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$194 (-17%) realized −$160 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%24W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$47
14 days+$37
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$107
world 31% +$29
politics 15% −$69
sports 6% −$44
culture 3% −$2
finance 1% −$14
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +144.7% +121.4% 100% 100% +94.9%
≤30d 7 +43.0% +29.4% 57% 57% -18.1%
≤90d 18 +6.1% -4.0% 56% 56% -23.6%
all 51 -11.8% -20.2% 47% 39% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 39% -23.6%
10% -27.9% 35% -30.9%
15% -34.8% 29% -37.5%
20% -41.2% 18% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$160
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses24 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage166d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $50 $50 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 7¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 24 $22 +$29 +128%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $14 +$8 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$10 +250%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $34 −$14 -41%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 13 $15 +$4 +26%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 02 $51 −$37 -72%
US military draft authorized in 2026? Jun 02 $37 −$17 -47%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 05 $14 −$14 -99%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $20 −$5 -25%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 05 $35 −$35 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $13 +$2 +14%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 05 $27 +$17 +61%
Will UK strike Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Mar 30 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $10 +$4 +40%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $10 +$2 +24%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 28 $18 +$8 +45%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $10 +$5 +50%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will George Santos attend the 2026 State of the Union address? Mar 17 $26 −$26 -100%
US strikes Iraq by March 7? Mar 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Mar 17 $61 −$58 -95%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Mar 16 $37 −$1 -2%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $28 +$9 +32%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 15 $20 +$7 +37%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? Mar 13 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility? Mar 08 $24 +$14 +59%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 07 $20 $0 +0%
Nothing Ever Happens: February Feb 23 $22 +$3 +15%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 19 $37 −$7 -20%
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 20% in F Feb 18 $15 +$7 +45%
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? Feb 12 $50 −$12 -24%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Feb 12 $8 −$5 -58%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? Feb 09 $20 +$23 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Coca Cola run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 09 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026? Feb 09 $32 +$24 +75%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? Feb 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will J.D. Vance attend Super Bowl LX? Feb 09 $16 −$16 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 09 $59 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 08 $8 $0 +5%
Will Crypto.com run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 08 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 08 $20 −$4 -20%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 7, 2026? Feb 07 $24 +$13 +57%
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Feb 07 $11 −$2 -18%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 04 $16 −$5 -31%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Feb 01 $10 +$1 +9%
Nothing Ever Happens: January Jan 29 $12 +$7 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 71¢ $51 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 30¢ $22 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $14 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 98¢ $14 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 6d
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 7¢ $20 10d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $20 10d
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 7¢ $15 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $19 10d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $34 21d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $14 21d
US military draft authorized in 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $20 21d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY Yes 76¢ $14 80d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? BUY No 73¢ $15 80d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 80d
US military draft authorized in 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 80d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 80d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 80d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 85d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $5 85d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 72¢ $13 85d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 85d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? SELL No 96¢ $14 85d
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $12 85d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 86d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 77¢ $15 86d
US military draft authorized in 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $27 87d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? SELL No 97¢ $27 87d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 77¢ $15 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.84 · official $49.84 (match) · 153 history records