Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:40:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c35…6f6c crypto 632 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$268 (-3%) realized −$264 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%264W / 353L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$35
14 days−$140
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$390
sports 27% −$25
other 3% −$87
politics 1% −$52
world 1% −$12
tech 0% −$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 45% -17.0%
≤30d 404 -11.6% -20.1% 48% 44% -11.4%
≤90d 548 -16.5% -24.5% 44% 41% -13.0%
all 617 -17.7% -25.5% 43% 39% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 39% -16.9%
10% -32.6% 34% -24.9%
15% -39.1% 30% -32.1%
20% -45.1% 24% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$264
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses264 / 353
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions9
Markets (closed)617 / 632
History coverage236d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 617 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will David Luna Sánchez win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 328 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +39%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$8 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$7 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$14 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$8 +442%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +121%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$20 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +43%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $7 −$6 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $35 +$34 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +52%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $29 +$11 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 09 $52 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$7 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 08 $52 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$17 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $42 −$16 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $36 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $31 +$8 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $7 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $4 16h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $13 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 58¢ $10 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.33 · official $6.33 (match) · 1601 history records