Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:46:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4c35…2aae
weather · 1129 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$150 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$153 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$53
Realized−$153
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses596 / 514
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)1110 / 1129
History coverage33d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day64.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 19 History 1110 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$34
14 days−$37
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? No 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? No 87¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? No 86¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? No 94¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? No 81¢ 84¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? No 96¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? No 75¢ 69¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? No 85¢ 76¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? No 75¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? No 78¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? No 79¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? No 82¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 87¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? No 91¢ 93¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? No 97¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? No 80¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? No 96¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? No 88¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $3 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 10? Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $2 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 9? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $3 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $5 +$2 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 9? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 9? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$3 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% −$149
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $2 55m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 82¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 81¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 80¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 76¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 82¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 45¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 79¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $2 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 -13.3% -21.5% 60% 51% -21.3%
≤30d 1012 -8.5% -17.2% 54% 43% -16.5%
≤90d 1110 -7.4% -16.2% 54% 42% -16.2%
all 1110 -7.4% -16.2% 54% 42% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover64.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 42% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 26% -24.2%
15% -31.6% 11% -31.5%
20% -38.3% 8% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.15 · official $53.15 (match) · 3500 history records