Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c33…38c9 crypto 370 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$140 (-1%) realized −$13 · open −$127
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate53%174W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$824now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$734
7 days−$527
14 days−$250
30 days−$331
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$143
weather 22% −$347
other 6% −$23
sports 5% +$133
politics 0% −$27
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -6.2% -15.1% 44% 41% -25.6%
≤30d 294 -4.8% -13.9% 54% 41% -13.3%
≤90d 328 -5.1% -14.1% 53% 41% -12.5%
all 328 -5.1% -14.1% 53% 41% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 41% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 34% -20.9%
15% -29.9% 32% -28.5%
20% -36.7% 28% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$19 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$824
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$127
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses174 / 154
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions41
Markets (closed)328 / 370
History coverage38d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 328 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? No 88¢ 87¢ $70 $70 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? No 93¢ 95¢ $56 $57 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? Yes 34¢ 44¢ $34 $43 +$9 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $39 $40 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? Yes 46¢ 37¢ $46 $37 −$9 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $38 $35 −$2 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Yes 29¢ 34¢ $29 $34 +$5 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Yes 24¢ 34¢ $24 $34 +$10 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $34 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? Yes 27¢ 33¢ $27 $33 +$6 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $31 $33 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Yes 29¢ 29¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $23 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? Yes 31¢ 22¢ $31 $21 −$9 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $22 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $20 $18 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$20 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $62 +$43 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $73 −$9 -12%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $68 −$5 -8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $75 −$5 -7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $73 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $14 −$2 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$41 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $312 −$312 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $124 −$124 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $436 −$230 -53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $62 +$6 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$55 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$21 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $45 −$24 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $26 +$15 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $62 +$32 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $32 +$18 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +45%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +87%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $22 +$18 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $22 +$31 +142%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 +$8 +70%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $21 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 0m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 30¢ $22 2m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 7m
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $22 8m
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 8m
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 33¢ $21 8m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 14m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 15m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 15m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 16m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 16m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 16m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $56 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $64 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $105 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $62 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 36¢ $13 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $823.66 · official $821.12 (match) · 1184 history records