Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:38:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c31…9d6c sports 1165 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$29 (+0%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%1141W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$29
other 17% +$9
weather 16% +$9
crypto 2% +$1
finance 2% +$1
tech 2% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 179 +0.1% -9.4% 96% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1163 -0.1% -9.6% 98% 0% -9.5%
all 1163 -0.1% -9.6% 98% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1141 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1163 / 1165
History coverage80d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Rory McIlroy lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the second round? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Shelton vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 7h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 12h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 33h
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 35h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 35h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom BUY Marcos Giron 100¢ $50 36h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 43h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under 100¢ $50 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $50 2d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $50 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 2d
Will Rory McIlroy lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the second round? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 100¢ $50 2d
Shelton vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY YFP Gaming 100¢ $50 3d
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $50 3d
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 100¢ $50 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.95 · official $99.95 (match) · 2446 history records