Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:33:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c31…5240 sports 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 387d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,328 (-5%) realized −$1,985 · open −$1,343
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%42W / 67L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$549per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$402est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$438now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$987
14 days−$987
30 days−$1,003
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$2,673
other 5% −$853
crypto 1% −$529
finance 0% −$308
world 0% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -44.6% -49.9% 25% 25% -44.5%
≤30d 10 +34.7% +21.8% 30% 30% -26.1%
≤90d 26 -13.3% -21.5% 27% 27% -39.0%
all 109 -6.9% -15.8% 39% 38% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 38% -14.1%
10% -23.8% 38% -22.4%
15% -31.2% 37% -29.9%
20% -37.9% 33% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$800) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$749 vs −$515 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

387d coverage
Net worth$438
Realized−$1,985
Unrealized−$1,343
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses42 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$402
Open positions4
Markets (closed)109 / 113
History coverage387d
Avg bet$549
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $300 $197 −$103 (-34%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $200 $122 −$78 (-39%)
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $301 $107 −$194 (-64%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $981 $12 −$969 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Jun 27 $756 −$747 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $611 −$600 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Jun 27 $509 −$500 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $708 +$860 +121%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $508 −$500 -98%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 14 $240 −$240 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 10 $51 +$403 +785%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 10 $103 −$100 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli Jun 09 $1,018 +$1,421 +140%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $1,321 −$1,300 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli May 16 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant May 16 $1,519 −$1,500 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight May 16 $815 −$800 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims) May 16 $713 −$700 -98%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 09 $4,048 −$4,000 -99%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 09 $1,535 −$1,500 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 09 $2,639 +$2,561 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Ma May 02 $500 +$397 +79%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car May 02 $1,000 +$1,222 +122%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca May 02 $1,500 +$3,141 +209%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Apr 18 $1,000 −$979 -98%
UFC Fight Night: JJ Aldrich vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth (Women's Flyweight, Pr Apr 18 $500 −$494 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) Apr 18 $500 −$494 -99%
UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 11 $1,000 −$980 -98%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 11 $1,000 −$982 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simon vs. Adrian Yanez (Bantamweight, Prelims) Mar 29 $500 −$97 -19%
UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Mar 29 $737 +$433 +59%
UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelim Mar 29 $700 +$573 +82%
UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber (Women's Flyweight, Ma Mar 29 $1,000 +$1,632 +163%
UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight Mar 29 $1,200 +$1,543 +128%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 23 $308 −$308 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Louie Sutherland vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Pre Mar 22 $400 +$181 +45%
UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Main Ca Mar 22 $500 +$281 +56%
UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims) Mar 22 $800 +$556 +70%
UFC Fight Night: Nathaniel Wood vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Preli Mar 22 $600 +$1,521 +254%
UFC Fight Night: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs. Shem Rock (Lightweight, P Mar 21 $900 −$900 -100%
UFC 326: Ricky Turcios vs. Alberto Montes (Featherweight, Prelims) Mar 16 $800 +$450 +56%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 16 $600 +$1,067 +178%
UFC 326: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 07 $300 −$300 -100%
UFC 326: Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long (Bantamweight, Prelims) Mar 07 $300 −$300 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Feb 28 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Macy Chiasson vs. Ailin Perez (Women's Bantamweight, Feb 28 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Wes Schultz vs. Damian Pinas (Middleweight, Prelims) Feb 28 $800 −$800 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Feb 22 $1,500 +$3,339 +223%
UFC 324: Perez vs. Johnson (Flyweight, Prelims) Feb 06 $400 +$713 +178%
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Feb 06 $1,000 +$1,108 +111%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Jan 31 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
UFC 324: Krylov vs. Bukauskas (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) Jan 25 $400 −$400 -100%
UFC 324: Hokit vs. Freeman (Heavyweight, Prelims) Jan 24 $600 −$600 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $998 1h
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Nazim Sadykhov 62¢ $756 2d
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Eric Nolan 41¢ $611 2d
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Andrey Pulyaev 38¢ $509 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 28¢ $99 5d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 49¢ $609 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 43¢ $1,017 15d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $508 15d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 24¢ $240 15d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Nigeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 19d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Nigeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 19d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Nigeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 19d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 20d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $309 20d
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai BUY Melquizael Costa 47¢ $1,321 43d
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli BUY Tuco Tokkos 41¢ $1,018 43d
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant BUY Jacqueline Cavalcanti 58¢ $506 43d
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant BUY Jacqueline Cavalcanti 58¢ $1,013 43d
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli BUY Cody Brundage 41¢ $1,018 44d
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight BUY Polyana Viana 38¢ $815 44d
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims) BUY Daniel Barez 39¢ $204 44d
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims) BUY Daniel Barez 39¢ $509 44d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Tatsuro Taira 60¢ $4,048 51d
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Jeremy Stephens 23¢ $1,535 51d
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, BUY Carlos Prates 50¢ $2,639 58d
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Charles Jourdain 55¢ $500 72d
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car BUY Gilbert Burns 29¢ $1,000 72d
UFC Fight Night: JJ Aldrich vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth (Women's Flyweight, Pr BUY Jamey-Lyn Horth 63¢ $500 72d
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Mandel Nallo 61¢ $500 72d
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca BUY Paulo Costa 31¢ $500 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $438.50 · official $438.50 (match) · 229 history records