Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c2f…7c68 other 242 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 228L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$27
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$39
sports 24% −$21
politics 9% −$8
economics 7% −$6
culture 5% −$6
crypto 5% −$4
world 4% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 165 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 241 -0.1% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)241 / 242
History coverage133d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $225 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $516 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $166 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $64 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $439 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $581 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $274 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $784 −$2 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $164 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $225 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $282 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $687 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $159 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $312 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $895 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $146 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $256 −$3 -1%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $561 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $138 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $676 −$2 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $144 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $118 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $251 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $69 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $168 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $240 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 05 $206 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $265 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $401 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 01 $404 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 30 $165 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $64 1h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $64 12h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $64 13h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 15h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 16h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 18h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $64 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $64 22h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $64 23h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $64 24h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $64 33h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $64 34h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $64 37h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $64 39h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 39h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 40h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $65 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $65 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $65 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $65 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $65 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $65 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $65 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.64 · official $63.64 (match) · 1361 history records