Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:53:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4C 0x4c2d…f8ae world 112 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$135,898 (+61%) realized +$137,352 · open −$1,454
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate50%54W / 55L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$1,977per market
Trades / day77.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$4,817now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% +$3,269
finance 31% −$20
politics 1% +$212
other 1% +$169
tech 0% +$142
crypto 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +28.9% +16.6% 46% 33% -5.4%
≤30d 90 +16.9% +5.8% 51% 37% -5.9%
≤90d 109 +13.7% +2.9% 50% 32% -6.3%
all 109 +13.7% +2.9% 50% 32% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.9% 32% -6.3%
10% -7.0% 23% -15.3%
15% ← realistic here -15.9% 17% -23.5%
20% -24.2% 12% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$1,531) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$214 vs −$141 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$4,817
Realized+$137,352
Unrealized−$1,454
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses54 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)109 / 112
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$1,977
Trades / day77.5
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $4,795 $3,316 −$1,479 (-31%)
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $504 $414 −$90 (-18%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $240 $250 +$10 (+4%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $229 $234 +$5 (+2%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $114 $217 +$103 (+90%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $63 $95 +$32 (+51%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? Yes 42¢ 28¢ $137 $93 −$44 (-32%)
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $13 $83 +$70 (+525%)
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $57 $66 +$9 (+17%)
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $112 $48 −$64 (-57%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $7 $1 −$7 (-89%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 26¢ 34¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Jun 19 $85 +$40 +47%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 19 $0 $0 -101%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May? Jun 19 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 19 $136 −$137 -101%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? Jun 19 $598 −$695 -116%
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during April press conference? Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Jun 19 $27 +$26 +98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $1,819 +$449 +25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 19 $6,430 +$219 +3%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 19 $99 −$39 -40%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $125 +$57 +46%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 19 $411 −$24 -6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 18 $686 −$108 -16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 18 $6,462 −$262 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 17 $10 $0 -3%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $62 +$20 +32%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $142 −$19 -13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $184 +$7 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 17 $3 +$4 +143%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3,576 −$311 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $291 −$141 -48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 14 $2,766 +$100 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 14 $2,696 +$25 +1%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $1,059 −$145 -14%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $282 +$165 +59%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $7,913 +$838 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $3,043 −$187 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $7,955 +$1,385 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $9,362 −$22 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $3,639 −$307 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $153 −$9 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $4,216 +$695 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $43 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 13 $2,883 +$149 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $213 +$137 +64%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +171%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $1,531 +$370 +24%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $145 −$70 -48%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $108 +$25 +24%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 11 $366 +$242 +66%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $57 −$29 -51%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 11 $5,153 +$352 +7%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 11 $1,563 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 10 $2,669 −$491 -18%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $1,300 +$222 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 14m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 14m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 38m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $40 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $151 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $15 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $132 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $98 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $658 2h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $90 2h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $49 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $48 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $16 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $160 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $800 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $800 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $245 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $902 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $450 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $450 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,817.16 · official $4,817.15 (match) · 3500 history records