Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:17:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4C 0x4c2c…898a crypto 395 markets active 2d ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$105 (+2%) realized +$105 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate37%144W / 250L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$24
14 days−$43
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$436
crypto 26% −$189
sports 16% −$81
finance 5% −$71
politics 1% −$13
economics 0% −$8
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -14.2% -22.4% 45% 45% -26.7%
≤30d 50 -14.0% -22.2% 48% 48% -25.9%
≤90d 194 -16.2% -24.2% 36% 31% -5.2%
all 394 -5.4% -14.4% 37% 32% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 32% -8.2%
10% -22.6% 28% -17.0%
15% -30.1% 25% -25.0%
20% -36.9% 21% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses144 / 250
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)394 / 395
History coverage153d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 394 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 57¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 23 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 23 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 23 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 23 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 23 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 23 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 23 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 23 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 23 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 23 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 23 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 23 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 23 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 23 $4 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 21 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 21 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 20 $2 +$2 +88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? May 20 $2 −$1 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 69¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.13 · official $1.13 (match) · 1892 history records