Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:43:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c2a…65dc other 255 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (103 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$8,459 (+12%) realized +$8,864 · open −$405
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate30%188W / 439L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day102.5pace
Fees−$165est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$1,178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$997
other 14% +$494
sports 9% +$2,528
culture 2% +$129
weather 1% −$35
politics 1% +$48
crypto 1% −$71
finance 0% −$20
tech 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (103 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+45.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 451 +51.2% +36.8% 20% 19% -34.6%
≤30d 582 +51.2% +36.8% 28% 21% -20.0%
≤90d 627 +61.3% +45.9% 30% 23% -19.3%
all 627 +61.3% +45.9% 30% 23% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover102.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +45.9% 23% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here +32.0% 20% -27.0%
15% +19.2% 19% -34.1%
20% +7.5% 17% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +61% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late +106% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$35 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$1,178
Realized+$8,864
Unrealized−$405
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses188 / 439
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$165
Open positions32
Markets (closed)627 / 255
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$268
Trades / day102.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 627 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 62¢ 56¢ $620 $565 −$55 (-9%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day 6? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $110 $98 −$12 (-11%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 45¢ 21¢ $163 $76 −$87 (-54%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54.5 and 55 million views on day 6? No 52¢ 32¢ $67 $42 −$25 (-38%)
Ventuals FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $53 $39 −$15 (-28%)
Makina FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $27 $35 +$8 (+30%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 64¢ 69¢ $26 $28 +$2 (+9%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $56 $23 −$34 (-60%)
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $39 $22 −$16 (-42%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $65 $17 −$47 (-73%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $60 $15 −$45 (-75%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+25%)
StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $2 $9 +$8 (+467%)
USDC depeg by December 31? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $11 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 30¢ $13 $7 −$6 (-45%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Ventuals FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 12¢ 2¢ $28 $4 −$23 (-84%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53.5 and 54 million views on day 6? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+35%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+19%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $13 $2 −$10 (-80%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 34¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+153%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 468 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" during Christmas Eve service Jun 18 $1 −$1 -220%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Qairat FK win on 2025-11-05? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -80%
Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 42.5 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Alex Consani be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 6? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Salesforce run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Wicked: For Good" Second Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 9 Jun 18 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 21, 2026? Jun 18 $3 +$5 +216%
Will Solana reach $400 before 2026? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-11-09? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2025-11-09? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jun 18 $13 −$8 -60%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ap Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-09? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Trump Vodka" or "Trump Steak" in April? Jun 18 $1 −$111 -9582%
Will Solana reach $250 in October? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Paula Badosa vs Lilli Tagger Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 17, 2026? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Celta Vigo vs. Barcelona end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of April 20 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 28, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 18 $3 +$98 +2841%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. AS Roma end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" while addressing the nation on De Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-09? Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Hornets vs. Timberwolves Jun 18 $14 −$22 -153%
Will Trump say "China" during dinner with Dutch royals? Jun 18 $1 −$6 -1022%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 13? Jun 18 $6 −$5 -87%
Will Chelsea vs. Wolves end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -102%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Australian Open? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Udinese win on 2025-11-09? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -78%
Next US strike on Syria on December 13? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NK Celje win on 2025-10-23? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-10-25? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-11-05? Jun 18 $0 +$1 +4729%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Lille OSC end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be exactly three announced new U.S. armed forces strikes ag Jun 18 $4 $0 -2%
Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 19, 2026? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Ma Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bryan Johnson say "Mushroom" 10+ times while tripping balls? Jun 18 $86 −$83 -96%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 18 $4,600 −$4,625 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in September? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ap Jun 18 $3 −$4 -120%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL Yes 98¢ $43 19m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day BUY Yes 20¢ $40 47m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL Yes 98¢ $150 53m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 64¢ $26 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 54¢ $1 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 54¢ $10 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL Yes 98¢ $25 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day BUY Yes 35¢ $70 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53.5 and 54 million views on day BUY Yes 1¢ $3 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54.5 and 55 million views on day BUY No 52¢ $52 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54.5 and 55 million views on day BUY No 52¢ $16 2h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL Czechia 37¢ $37 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 9¢ $11 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $0 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 3h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 25¢ $25 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL Yes 98¢ $1 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $53 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51.5 and 52 million views on day BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51.5 and 52 million views on day BUY Yes 3¢ $0 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,178.16 · official $1,178.33 (match) · 3500 history records