Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:37:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c29…7570 world 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d
BOTnot copyable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 61d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$113,730 (+70%) realized +$110,862 · open +$2,868
Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$4,936per market
Trades / day56.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$6,451now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 61d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$8,046
economics 17% +$3,807
politics 13% −$1,225
world 13% +$2,996
other 1% +$1,217
sports 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+46.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.8% -7.9% 88% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 10 +43.6% +29.9% 90% 10% -2.5%
≤90d 22 +61.4% +46.0% 59% 14% -2.7%
all 22 +61.4% +46.0% 59% 14% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +46.0% 14% -2.7%
10% +32.1% 14% -12.0%
15% ← realistic here +19.3% 14% -20.5%
20% +7.6% 14% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 86% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +61% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$6,423) neutral
Persistence
early +91% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
26.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,284 vs −$787 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.54 per $1 lost it wins $3.54
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$6,451
Realized+$110,862
Unrealized+$2,868
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions11
Markets (closed)22 / 33
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$4,936
Trades / day56.2
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 14¢ 100¢ $460 $3,188 +$2,729 (+594%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 54¢ 62¢ $1,080 $1,230 +$150 (+14%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $160B by December 31? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $856 $923 +$67 (+8%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $986 $919 −$66 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 10¢ 10¢ $157 $142 −$15 (-9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No $79 $39 −$39 (-50%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 53¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+88%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 61¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+64%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 70¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+43%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 83¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 94¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $1,761 +$60 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $20,000 $0 +0%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $180 +$743 +413%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $91,604 +$8,046 +9%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 04 $570 −$482 -84%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $743 −$743 -100%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 03 $400 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $14,403 +$135 +1%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026? Apr 29 $46 +$406 +888%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 28 $6,423 −$51 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 28 $8,343 −$3,444 -41%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 28 $10,210 +$975 +10%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 28 $2,602 +$6,327 +243%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 22 $100 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 22 $31 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 22 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No $0 22m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No $0 28m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No $0 28m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No $0 28m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No $0 28m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No $0 28m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No $6 28m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $470 43m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No $85 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $356 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $16 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $75 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $244 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $100 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $37 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $122 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $530 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No $3 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No $1 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No $0 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 56¢ $560 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,451.34 · official $6,451.34 (match) · 3500 history records