Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:48:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4C 0x4c25…c3be sports 208 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$81,362 (-61%) realized −$78,803 · open −$2,559
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate41%72W / 105L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$638per market
Trades / day52.1pace
Fees−$3,158est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$35,898now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 64d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$4,583
other 12% −$2,527
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 +45.4% +31.6% 33% 8% -17.4%
≤30d 141 +45.3% +31.5% 43% 18% -4.5%
≤90d 177 +36.2% +23.2% 41% 18% -5.5%
all 177 +36.2% +23.2% 41% 18% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.2% 18% -5.5%
10% +11.4% 14% -14.5%
15% ← realistic here +0.6% 13% -22.8%
20% -9.2% 12% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$700) neutral
Persistence
early +13% → late +59% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$68 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$35,898
Realized−$78,803
Unrealized−$2,559
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses72 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$3,158
Open positions35
Markets (closed)177 / 208
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$638
Trades / day52.1
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 71¢ 83¢ $14,200 $16,690 +$2,490 (+18%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Croatia 70¢ 69¢ $3,500 $3,474 −$25 (-1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 28¢ 17¢ $5,600 $3,310 −$2,290 (-41%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $2,800 $2,775 −$25 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 52¢ $2,600 $2,625 +$25 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 86¢ 76¢ $1,720 $1,520 −$200 (-12%)
Croatia leading at halftime? No 83¢ 84¢ $830 $835 +$5 (+1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $730 $725 −$5 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $470 $466 −$5 (-1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 41¢ 38¢ $462 $434 −$28 (-6%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half No 76¢ 76¢ $426 $429 +$3 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Under 43¢ 42¢ $430 $425 −$5 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Under 77¢ 78¢ $355 $358 +$2 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 60¢ 61¢ $344 $349 +$6 (+2%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 64¢ 63¢ $224 $220 −$3 (-2%)
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $161 $163 +$2 (+1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in Second Half No 76¢ 78¢ $154 $159 +$5 (+3%)
Ghana vs. Panama: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 63¢ 64¢ $146 $148 +$1 (+1%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 80¢ 74¢ $114 $107 −$7 (-6%)
Croatia to score first vs. England? No 67¢ 69¢ $93 $97 +$3 (+4%)
England to win the second half? No 53¢ 55¢ $94 $97 +$3 (+3%)
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 47¢ 48¢ $85 $86 +$2 (+2%)
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Under 51¢ 52¢ $79 $82 +$2 (+3%)
Croatia to win the second half? No 80¢ 83¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+4%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Under 35¢ 34¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $255 +$11 +4%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2,080 −$80 -4%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $360 −$9 -2%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $243 −$2 -1%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $820 −$4 -0%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $224 −$7 -3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $473 −$10 -2%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $890 −$16 -2%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $630 −$23 -4%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $90 $0 -0%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $256 −$5 -2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1,080 −$31 -3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $840 +$1 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $152 −$2 -2%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $256 +$13 +5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $269 −$21 -8%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $376 −$6 -2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,913 −$10 -0%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $65 +$6 +9%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $130 −$7 -5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $140 +$3 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $365 +$3 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5,700 +$50 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,300 +$50 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,600 +$40 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,680 +$80 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,860 −$14 -1%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1,760 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $616 −$3 -0%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $642 −$2 -0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,500 +$50 +2%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 16 $348 −$1 -0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $4 +$24 +567%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $530 +$4 +1%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $160 −$4 -2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $220 +$6 +3%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 16 $184 −$8 -4%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1,230 $0 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $550 −$10 -2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $546 +$6 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Second half draw? Jun 15 $492 $0 -0%
Saudi Arabia to win the second half? Jun 15 $556 +$13 +2%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $14 $0 -0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $43 $0 -0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $300 −$16 -5%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $782 +$24 +3%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $50 +$4 +9%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 15 $700 −$25 -4%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $580 −$18 -3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $970 +$20 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England to score first vs. Croatia? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 6m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $87 7m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $30 8m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $10 10m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $84 11m
England to win the second half? BUY No 53¢ $5 12m
England to win the second half? BUY No 53¢ $5 13m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $5 14m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $2 15m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $15 18m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $1 19m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $3 20m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $10 22m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $97 23m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $6 23m
England to win the second half? BUY No 53¢ $1 23m
England to score first vs. Croatia? SELL Yes 61¢ $6 29m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 51¢ $5 31m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 50¢ $2,000 35m
England to score first vs. Croatia? SELL Yes 61¢ $5 37m
Croatia to win the second half? BUY No 82¢ $3 47m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $154 52m
England to score first vs. Croatia? SELL Yes 61¢ $3 54m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 51¢ $14 55m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $14 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $29 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $1 1h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) SELL Ghana 18¢ $351 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35,897.78 · official $35,897.49 (match) · 3500 history records