Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:45:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4c22…b342
sports · 856 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$299 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$291 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized+$291
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses378 / 465
Est. fees paid−$125
Open positions13
Markets (closed)843 / 856
History coverage46d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day59.0
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 13 History 843 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$64
14 days+$46
30 days+$366
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? Under 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Bilibili Gaming 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-98%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-98%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner T1 13¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Hanwha Life Esports 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) T1 70¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Hanwha Life Esports 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1? Under 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner T1 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? Jun 13 $5 +$4 +84%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$5 -83%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$2 -59%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $24 +$4 +15%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$5 +152%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +95%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$6 +404%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $23 −$1 -4%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +91%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$9 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +78%
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 12 $42 −$2 -5%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$1 -6%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +60%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +47%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$2 -30%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+2.5) Jun 12 $40 +$5 +13%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 $0 -11%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +101%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $3 $0 +11%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $19 −$1 -3%
Game Handicap: TESC (-1.5) vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (+1.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 9? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $5 +$2 +32%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $5 +$8 +160%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $3 −$1 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$8 +74%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster Academy vs Top Esports Challenger (BO1) - Asia Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+2.5) Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $10 +$4 +39%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 09 $24 +$7 +28%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $14 −$1 -10%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +91%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $8 −$4 -48%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $5 −$2 -38%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $17 −$3 -18%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $9 +$1 +15%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 85% +$177
other 8% +$128
weather 7% −$23
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 22¢ $1 30m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 20¢ $1 34m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 3¢ $2 49m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 64¢ $1 1h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 63¢ $1 1h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 78¢ $1 1h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 84¢ $1 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 3¢ $2 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 42¢ $8 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 35¢ $6 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 28¢ $3 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 3¢ $2 1h
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? SELL Under 99¢ $9 2h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster 6¢ $1 2h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 3¢ $2 2h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 3¢ $2 3h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 23¢ $4 3h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 86¢ $9 3h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster 19¢ $4 3h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 26¢ $5 4h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 25¢ $5 4h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 10¢ $1 4h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster 19¢ $8 4h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 13¢ $3 4h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 11¢ $5 4h
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? BUY Under 52¢ $5 7h
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? BUY Under 53¢ $5 7h
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner SELL Misa Esports 43¢ $4 19h
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner SELL Misa Esports 41¢ $4 19h
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner BUY Misa Esports 16¢ $3 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -19.9% -27.5% 38% 36% -18.7%
≤30d 475 -5.3% -14.3% 41% 37% +1.2%
≤90d 843 -5.1% -14.2% 45% 36% -4.9%
all 843 -5.1% -14.2% 45% 36% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover59.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 36% -4.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 29% -14.0%
15% -29.9% 25% -22.3%
20% -36.8% 19% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.88 · official $9.88 (match) · 3226 history records