Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c21…357f world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%10W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% $0
sports 12% −$8
other 11% +$3
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.7% -10.2% 17% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 14 -0.3% -9.8% 21% 0% -9.5%
all 29 +6.7% -3.5% 34% 3% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 3% -10.5%
10% -12.7% 3% -19.1%
15% -21.1% 3% -26.9%
20% -28.9% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage474d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $2 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $31 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $28 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 20 $31 $0 -1%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $31 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 16 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $6 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +4%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Indianapolis Colts? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Newcastle finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 17 $1 +$3 +342%
Will Bill Clinton be named in Epstein files? Apr 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 12 $7 $0 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 23 $8 $0 +1%
Holy Cross vs. Lafayette Mar 04 $16 −$8 -50%
Sacramento State vs. Portland State Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Howard vs. SC State Mar 03 $17 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $31 42m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $31 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 10h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 10h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 45h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $20 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $14 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $34 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $34 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $30 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $10 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $20 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $33 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $33 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $34 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $34 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $24 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $7 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 90¢ $31 27d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records