Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4C 0x4c1f…158f sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$80 (-7%) realized +$70 · open −$150
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate83%24W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$263now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$57
14 days−$28
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$3
other 37% −$165
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +16.7% +5.6% 100% 80% +5.8%
≤30d 29 +2.9% -6.9% 83% 62% -11.6%
≤90d 29 +2.9% -6.9% 83% 62% -11.6%
all 29 +2.9% -6.9% 83% 62% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 62% -11.6%
10% -15.8% 28% -20.1%
15% -23.9% 10% -27.8%
20% -31.4% 3% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$24 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$263
Realized+$70
Unrealized−$150
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses24 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage16d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 63¢ 38¢ $310 $188 −$122 (-39%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Over 94¢ 72¢ $73 $56 −$17 (-24%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 Over 83¢ 52¢ $30 $19 −$11 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $145 +$29 +20%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $143 +$21 +15%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $21 +$1 +3%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $17 +$5 +27%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $14 +$3 +19%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $19 −$5 -28%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +33%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $25 +$2 +7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $30 +$2 +7%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $23 +$2 +8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $35 +$6 +17%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $48 −$47 -96%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $40 +$12 +29%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 +$4 +36%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 +$4 +40%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $12 +$2 +20%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $7 +$2 +31%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $3 $0 +6%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $3 +$1 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 $0 +14%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $22 $0 +2%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $1 +$1 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 94¢ $73 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $174 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $32 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $163 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $24 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $18 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 3h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $50 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 3h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $50 3h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $100 3h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $12 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $21 22h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 22h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $17 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $14 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 58¢ $14 9d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $19 9d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 10d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 10d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $27 10d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $13 10d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $10 11d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $45 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $262.64 · official $275.07 · 77 history records