Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4C 0x4c1e…a29e sports 180 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$220 (+5%) realized +$207 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%69W / 105L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$43
14 days−$60
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$202
other 36% −$119
crypto 4% −$45
weather 2% +$36
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +44.3% +30.6% 50% 50% +37.5%
≤30d 43 -24.1% -31.3% 33% 30% -24.6%
≤90d 174 -11.5% -19.9% 40% 38% -8.3%
all 174 -11.5% -19.9% 40% 38% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 38% -8.3%
10% -27.6% 35% -17.1%
15% -34.6% 30% -25.1%
20% -41.0% 28% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$14 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$207
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses69 / 105
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions6
Markets (closed)174 / 180
History coverage39d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Yes 73¢ 98¢ $21 $28 +$7 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Yes 60¢ 97¢ $12 $20 +$7 (+61%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $26 −$9 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $27 +$32 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$21 +105%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $150 −$149 -99%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $6 −$6 -98%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $102 +$53 +52%
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Slovakia vs. Malta end in a draw? Jun 01 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Malta win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Prostejov: Lautaro Midon vs Zdenek Kolar Jun 01 $5 +$6 +118%
Foggia: Xinyu Gao vs Darya Astakhova Jun 01 $3 −$3 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $5 +$7 +139%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $3 −$3 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $3 −$3 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $4 −$4 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $8 +$11 +129%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$4 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $5 +$5 +94%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $6 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $4 +$11 +314%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $4 −$1 -28%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 29 $3 +$5 +206%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi May 28 $3 +$5 +161%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Mayar Sherif May 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Madison Keys May 28 $2 −$2 -98%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Sada Nahimana vs Ajla Tomljanovic May 19 $11 −$11 -99%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Diane Parry vs Emma Raducanu May 19 $13 −$2 -15%
Will CD Leganés vs. SD Huesca end in a draw? May 18 $9 +$4 +45%
Geneva Open: Raul Brancaccio vs Stan Wawrinka May 18 $6 +$3 +50%
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton May 18 $6 $0 +6%
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 18 $2 +$3 +165%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Magdalena Frech vs Talia Gibson May 18 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$4 +43%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 +$10 +388%
Will Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? May 17 $3 −$1 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 9m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 56¢ $8 15m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 18m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 24m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 73¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? SELL Yes 41¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $9 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? SELL Yes 39¢ $9 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $27 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 21h
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $150 7d
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $6 7d
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $155 7d
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 7d
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 65¢ $102 7d
Will Slovakia vs. Malta end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $7 15d
Will Malta win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 15d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 16d
Will Malta win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 50¢ $7 16d
Prostejov: Lautaro Midon vs Zdenek Kolar SELL Lautaro Midon 100¢ $11 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 50¢ $4 16d
Foggia: Xinyu Gao vs Darya Astakhova BUY Xinyu Gao 38¢ $3 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.12 · official $60.79 (match) · 331 history records