Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4C 0x4c1d…aa8a weather 270 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$168 (+16%) realized +$167 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%94W / 147L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 58% +$176
other 14% −$64
sports 13% +$7
finance 9% +$65
politics 5% −$25
world 1% +$2
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -22.1% -29.6% 33% 33% -42.4%
≤30d 16 +75.3% +58.6% 25% 25% -37.7%
≤90d 224 +37.6% +24.5% 39% 36% +6.9%
all 241 +33.5% +20.8% 39% 36% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.8% 36% +2.7%
10% +9.2% 30% -7.1%
15% -1.3% 26% -16.1%
20% -11.0% 22% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$167
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses94 / 147
Open positions29
Markets (closed)241 / 270
History coverage118d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $7 +$3 (+88%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $6 +$3 (+99%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $4 +$1 (+43%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $3 +$1 (+25%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -27%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -54%
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Will Steve Hilton win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mark Leonard advance from the CA-45 primary election? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Chi Charlie Nguyen advance from the CA-45 primary election? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -89%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 07 $0 +$9 +3249%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Derek Tran advance from the CA-45 primary election? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Chuong Vo advance from the CA-45 primary election? Jun 01 $6 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 26? May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 26? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on May 23? May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on May 22? May 22 $3 +$3 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 22? May 22 $3 +$1 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 17? May 17 $4 +$1 +31%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on May 16? May 16 $3 +$8 +224%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 6°C on May 16? May 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on May 16? May 16 $0 $0 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on May 16? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on May 15? May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on May 14? May 14 $3 −$2 -64%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on May 14? May 14 $5 +$9 +183%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on May 14? May 14 $2 +$3 +175%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on May 13? May 13 $8 +$2 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on May 12? May 12 $3 +$3 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 9? May 09 $0 +$5 +2305%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C or below on May 8? May 08 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on May 8? May 08 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 7? May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 7? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? May 06 $6 $0 -9%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on May 3? May 03 $1 +$2 +161%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 2? May 02 $21 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 2? May 02 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 2? May 02 $0 $0 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on May 1? May 01 $0 $0 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on May 1? May 01 $0 +$1 +240%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 1? May 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 1? May 01 $1 −$1 -72%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 1? May 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 1? May 01 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 1? May 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 1? May 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 1? May 01 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 1? May 01 $0 $0 -68%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 1? May 01 $0 $0 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on May 1? May 01 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on May 1? May 01 $0 $0 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 19h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 19h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 20h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 24h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 24h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 24h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 24h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 25h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 25h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 25h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 25h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 25h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 25h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 25h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 29h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 29h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 29h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.40 · official $51.39 (match) · 2334 history records