Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4C 0x4c1c…e964 crypto 545 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,204 (-9%) realized −$1,204 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%205W / 340L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days−$81
14 days+$30
30 days−$1,279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,678
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -9.2% -17.9% 38% 34% -18.5%
≤30d 382 -7.0% -15.9% 39% 36% -21.7%
≤90d 545 -7.2% -16.0% 38% 35% -21.7%
all 545 -7.2% -16.0% 38% 35% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 35% -21.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 34% -29.2%
15% -31.4% 31% -36.0%
20% -38.1% 28% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$21 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,204
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses205 / 340
Open positions0
Markets (closed)545 / 545
History coverage55d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 545 Trades
no open positions (330 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$15 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$15 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$85 +799%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$7 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $62 +$34 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $58 −$55 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $37 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$33 +311%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$14 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $32 +$12 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $35 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $12 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $18 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $51 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $45 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $16 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $20 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $11 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $34 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1227 history records