Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:05:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4C 0x4c18…0458 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15 (+6%) realized +$55 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$20
other 22% +$5
crypto 15% −$2
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +7.4% -2.9% 70% 70% +5.8%
≤30d 10 +7.4% -2.9% 70% 70% +5.8%
≤90d 10 +7.4% -2.9% 70% 70% +5.8%
all 14 +4.5% -5.4% 71% 57% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 57% +1.0%
10% -14.5% 50% -8.6%
15% -22.8% 29% -17.5%
20% -30.3% 29% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$55
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage154d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Under 69¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$9 +30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $28 +$10 +34%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $14 +$14 +97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $12 +$6 +52%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 +$2 +19%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $11 +$9 +79%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 17 Jan 17 $13 −$5 -38%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 17 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 12PM ET Jan 16 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 16? Jan 16 $10 +$2 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 69¢ $40 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 97¢ $25 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 96¢ $14 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $30 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 86¢ $38 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $28 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $28 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $14 8h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 26h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $16 27h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $10 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $12 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 54¢ $12 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 44¢ $10 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $11 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $11 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 17 SELL Yes 4¢ $8 152d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 17 BUY Yes 6¢ $13 152d
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 152d
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $13 153d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 12PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $12 153d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 153d
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 16? SELL Down 100¢ $12 153d
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 16? BUY Down 80¢ $10 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 27 history records