Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:06:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c10…5d44 sports 461 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$97 (-0%) realized −$134 · open +$37
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%223W / 230L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day59.5pace
Fees−$304est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$763now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days−$156
14 days−$1,523
30 days−$664
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$109
other 11% −$743
politics 1% +$9
weather 0% −$5
world 0% +$4
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 155 -10.1% -18.7% 47% 37% -12.1%
≤30d 453 -8.2% -17.0% 49% 45% -12.1%
≤90d 453 -8.2% -17.0% 49% 45% -12.1%
all 453 -8.2% -17.0% 49% 45% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 45% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 41% -20.5%
15% -32.2% 37% -28.2%
20% -38.8% 31% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$46 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$763
Realized−$134
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses223 / 230
Est. fees paid−$304
Open positions8
Markets (closed)453 / 461
History coverage24d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day59.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 453 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mallorca Championships (Doubles): Frantzen/Haase vs Melo/Molteni Frantzen/Haase 59¢ 86¢ $130 $190 +$60 (+46%)
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Under 50¢ 54¢ $168 $180 +$12 (+7%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 49¢ 49¢ $124 $124 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Washington Nationals 51¢ 50¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $108 $102 −$6 (-5%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Teodora Kostovic vs Lin Zhu Lin Zhu 66¢ 42¢ $37 $24 −$13 (-35%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 57¢ 56¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%? No 68¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 25 $133 +$123 +93%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $85 −$85 -100%
Barcelona vs. Valencia Jun 24 $75 −$75 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 24 $64 −$64 -100%
Mallorca Championships (Doubles): Cabral/Miedler vs Frantzen/Haase Jun 24 $63 +$135 +213%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $232 −$232 -100%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 24 $287 +$242 +84%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $79 +$104 +132%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $66 −$66 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar Jun 22 $183 +$124 +68%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $386 +$367 +95%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $345 +$207 +60%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $81 +$51 +63%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $58 +$63 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $79 −$79 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $338 −$338 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $73 −$73 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 20 $23 −$6 -25%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 20 $3 $0 +5%
Will T1 Qualify to the MSI 2026 Knockout Stage Jun 20 $1 −$1 -60%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 24? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -57%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 20 $2 $0 +22%
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in June 2026? Jun 20 $2 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? Jun 20 $1 $0 +36%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 21? Jun 20 $3 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 21? Jun 20 $3 $0 -2%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 20 $3 $0 +7%
Will Australia finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 20 $1 +$3 +232%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 21? Jun 20 $3 $0 -2%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $197 −$23 -12%
Will Karmine Corp Qualify to the MSI 2026 Knockout Stage Jun 20 $4 $0 -4%
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $7 $0 +3%
Will England win? Jun 20 $33 −$2 -6%
Will Ghana be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 20 $12 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 21? Jun 20 $7 +$1 +20%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by les Jun 20 $17 −$4 -24%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $11 $0 +1%
Will Kate Green win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Jun 20 $9 +$5 +55%
Will Hannah Spencer win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Jun 20 $9 +$5 +60%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ghana be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 20 $14 $0 +1%
Will Nick Buckley win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Jun 20 $9 +$5 +60%
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Jun 20 $15 +$5 +37%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 20 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 51¢ $123 32m
Mallorca Championships (Doubles): Frantzen/Haase vs Melo/Molteni BUY Frantzen/Haase 90¢ $27 1h
Mallorca Championships (Doubles): Frantzen/Haase vs Melo/Molteni BUY Frantzen/Haase 52¢ $59 1h
Mallorca Championships (Doubles): Frantzen/Haase vs Melo/Molteni BUY Frantzen/Haase 52¢ $2 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Teodora Kostovic vs Lin Zhu BUY Lin Zhu 65¢ $5 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Teodora Kostovic vs Lin Zhu BUY Lin Zhu 66¢ $34 1h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $28 1h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 1h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 1h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $33 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $17 1h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $18 1h
Mallorca Championships (Doubles): Frantzen/Haase vs Melo/Molteni BUY Frantzen/Haase 57¢ $44 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $8 1h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 1h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $89 1h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 49¢ $43 1h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 48¢ $13 1h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 48¢ $17 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $85 16h
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Barcelona 44¢ $50 20h
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Barcelona 50¢ $25 22h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $64 24h
Mallorca Championships (Doubles): Cabral/Miedler vs Frantzen/Haase BUY Frantzen/Haase 31¢ $3 25h
Mallorca Championships (Doubles): Cabral/Miedler vs Frantzen/Haase BUY Frantzen/Haase 31¢ $60 25h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $9 28h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $2 29h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $3 29h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $4 29h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $78 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $763.12 · official $752.53 · 1821 history records