Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:42:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c08…2f21 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$37 (-1%) realized +$635 · open −$672
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$623per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$2,378now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$692
other 38% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-52.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 5 -47.8% -52.7% 20% 20% -12.1%
≤90d 5 -47.8% -52.7% 20% 20% -12.1%
all 5 -47.8% -52.7% 20% 20% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.7% 20% -12.1%
10% -57.3% 20% -20.5%
15% -61.4% 20% -28.2%
20% -65.2% 20% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$17 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$2,378
Realized+$635
Unrealized−$672
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage18d
Avg bet$623
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Brazil 72¢ 50¢ $2,300 $1,613 −$687 (-30%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $600 $714 +$114 (+19%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 28¢ 10¢ $150 $51 −$99 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $1,825 −$16 -1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 72¢ $1,815 48m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 55¢ $1,809 48m
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 72¢ $504 51m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 28¢ $153 51m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,825 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $204 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $409 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 15d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 17d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 8¢ $21 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,377.71 · official $2,377.71 (match) · 12 history records