Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:05:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4c05…71e1
crypto · 13 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 97¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$27 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$13 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$5 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -8.2% -17.0% 62% 46% +3.4%
≤30d 13 -8.2% -17.0% 62% 46% +3.4%
≤90d 13 -8.2% -17.0% 62% 46% +3.4%
all 13 -8.2% -17.0% 62% 46% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 46% +3.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 46% -6.5%
15% -32.2% 46% -15.5%
20% -38.8% 31% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.09 · official $3.09 (match) · 22 history records